Design and selection of drug properties to increase the public health impact of next-generation seasonal malaria chemoprevention: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is recommended for disease control in settings with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum transmission and currently depends on the administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. However, poor regimen adherence and the increased frequency of parasite mutations conferring sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance might threaten the effectiveness of SMC. Guidance is needed to de-risk the development of drug compounds for malaria prevention. We aimed to provide guidance for the early prioritisation of new and alternative SMC drugs and their target product profiles. METHODS: In this modelling study, we combined an individual-based malaria transmission model that has explicit parasite growth with drug pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. We modelled SMC drug attributes for several possible modes of action, linked to their potential public health impact. Global sensitivity analyses identified trade-offs between drug elimination half-life, maximum parasite killing effect, and SMC coverage, and optimisation identified minimum requirements to maximise malaria burden reductions. FINDINGS: Model predictions show that preventing infection for the entire period between SMC cycles is more important than drug curative efficacy for clinical disease effectiveness outcomes, but similarly important for impact on prevalence. When children younger than 5 years receive four SMC cycles with high levels of coverage (ie, 69% of children receiving all cycles), drug candidates require a duration of protection half-life higher than 23 days (elimination half-life >10 days) to achieve reductions higher than 75% in clinical incidence and severe disease (measured over the intervention period in the target population, compared with no intervention across a range of modelled scenarios). High coverage is crucial to achieve these targets, requiring more than 60% of children to receive all SMC cycles and more than 90% of children to receive at least one cycle regardless of the protection duration of the drug. INTERPRETATION: Although efficacy is crucial for malaria prevalence reductions, chemoprevention development should select drug candidates for their duration of protection to maximise burden reductions, with the duration half-life determining cycle timing. Explicitly designing or selecting drug properties to increase community uptake is paramount. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Swiss National Science Foundation.