Conditional survival and the prognostic value of serum carcinoembryonic antigen level in oldest old with colorectal cancer.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the clinical value of serum CEA levels and their implications on the diagnostic value of the conventional TNM staging system in the oldest-old patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: The recruited subjects were colorectal cancer patients aged 85 and older. The cutoff value for normal CEA level is 5 ng/mL. Patients with elevated CEA levels were categorized as stage C1, and those with normal CEA levels as stage C0. A number of Cox proportional hazard regression models were established to evaluate the prognosis of different prognostic factors with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The Kaplan-Meier method was utilized to display the disparate prognostic impact of multiple clinicopathological factors with the log-rank test. RESULTS: A total of 17,359 oldest-old patients diagnosed with CRC were recruited from the SEER database. The conditional survival of oldest-old patients with CRC was dismal with a 1-year conditional survival of only 11%, 18%, and 30% for patients surviving 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Patients with stage C1 exhibited a 48.5% increased risk of CRC-specific mortality compared with stage C0 (HR = 1.485, 95%CI = 1.393-1.583, using stage C0 patients as the reference, P < 0.001). All the stage C0 patients indicated lower HRs relative to the corresponding stage C1 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Dismal conditional survival of oldest-old patients with CRC should be given additional consideration. C stage influences the prognosis of oldest-old patients with CRC.