Pathways to identify and reduce uncertainties in agricultural climate impact assessments.
Nat Food
; 5(7): 550-556, 2024 Jul.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39009735
ABSTRACT
Both climate and impact models are essential for understanding and quantifying the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Multi-model ensembles have highlighted considerable uncertainties in these assessments, yet a systematic approach to quantify these uncertainties is lacking. We propose a standardized approach to attribute uncertainties in multi-model ensemble studies, based on insights from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project. We find that crop model processes are the primary source of uncertainty in agricultural projections (over 50%), excluding unquantified hidden uncertainty that is not explicitly measured within the analyses. We propose multidimensional pathways to reduce uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Cambio Climático
/
Agricultura
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article