Does parents' evaluation of developmental status at school entry predict language, achievement, and quality of life 2 years later?

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: We studied the accuracy of the Parents' Evaluation of Developmental Status (PEDS) at school entry in predicting academic, language, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes 2 years later. DESIGN/METHOD: Prospective population study in elementary schools in Melbourne, Australia. Base Population. A total of 1591 school entry children who participated in a separate cross-sectional study. Cases. One hundred seventy-three children randomly selected from those with significant parental developmental concerns. Controls. One hundred twenty-nine children without significant parental development concerns. Predictors (1997). Parents completed all 10 PEDS items; teachers completed 5 PEDS items. Outcomes (1999). The PEDS and the Child Health Questionnaire (parents) and the Comprehensive Inventory of Basic Skills-Revised and the Renfrew Action Picture Test of language (children). Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for low outcome scores, defined as >1.0 standard deviation below the mean or <16th centile. RESULTS: At outcome, case parents reported more "significant" concerns on the PEDS than did control parents (65% vs 26%, OR 5.3), but mean language and academic scores were only slightly lower for case children. Parent-reported self-help and school skills concerns predicted low language (ORs 2.1-2.8) and academic (ORs 1.3-6.6) scores. Teacher concerns about early school skills predicted low academic scores (ORs 3.7-4.7). However, sensitivity and specificity values were modest. Baseline developmental concerns predicted poor scores on a number of domains of HRQoL 2 years later. CONCLUSIONS: Although individual developmental concerns at school entry variably predict later academic and language scores, sensitivity and specificity values would not support use of the PEDS as a stand-alone screen to detect later problems.