Forecasting the number of future disabled elderly using Markovian and mathematical models.
J Clin Epidemiol
; 44(9): 973-80, 1991.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-1832442
ABSTRACT
The accuracy of forecasting the number of future disabled elderly people depends on the accuracy of projecting mortality rates and the rates of transition to and from functional disability. We describe a new two-step method for constructing mathematical models that project these future rates dynamically. (1) A Markovian model of elders' transitions between functional states is specified. (2) A mathematical model of the probability of each transition is created. We conducted pilot studies of the fundamental mathematical processes of this method using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging. First we constructed prototypic mathematical models of the probabilities of remaining functionally able and of making transitions to disability and to death within 2 years. Then we used these models to project hypothetical rates of transition for white women of selected ages, morbidity ratings and health statuses.
Buscar no Google
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Cadeias de Markov
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Pessoas com Deficiência
/
Previsões
/
Necessidades e Demandas de Serviços de Saúde
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
1991
Tipo de documento:
Article