Calculating the time to extinction of a reactivating virus, in particular bovine herpes virus.
Math Biosci
; 212(2): 111-31, 2008 Apr.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-18342896
The expected time to extinction of a herpes virus is calculated from a rather simple population-dynamical model that incorporates transmission, reactivation and fade-out of the infectious agent. We also derive the second and higher moments of the distribution of the time to extinction. These quantities help to assess the possibilities to eradicate a reactivating infection. The key assumption underlying our calculations is that epidemic outbreaks are fast relative to the time scale of demographic turnover. Four parameters influence the expected time to extinction: the reproduction ratio, the reactivation rate, the population size, and the demographic turn-over in the host population. We find that the expected time till extinction is very long when the reactivation rate is high (reactivation is expected more than once in a life time). Furthermore, the infectious agent will go extinct much more quickly in small populations. This method is applied to bovine herpes virus (BHV) in a cattle herd. The results indicate that without vaccination, BHV will persist in large herds. The use of a good vaccine can induce eradication of the infection from a herd within a few decades. Additional measures are needed to eradicate the virus from a whole region within a similar time-span.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças dos Bovinos
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Infecções por Herpesviridae
/
Herpesvirus Bovino 1
/
Modelos Biológicos
Limite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2008
Tipo de documento:
Article