Probability of exporting infected carcasses from vaccinated pigs following a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic.
Risk Anal
; 30(4): 605-18, 2010 Apr.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-20030768
ABSTRACT
Emergency vaccination is an effective control strategy for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics in densely populated livestock areas, but results in a six-month waiting period before exports can be resumed, incurring severe economic consequences for pig exporting countries. In the European Union, a one-month waiting period has been discussed based on negative test results in a final screening. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk of exporting FMD-infected pig carcasses from a vaccinated area (1) directly after final screening and (2) after a six-month waiting period. A risk model has been developed to estimate the probability that a processed carcass was derived from an FMD-infected pig (P(carc)). Key variables were herd prevalence (P(H)), within-herd prevalence (P(A)), and the probability of detection at slaughter (P(SL)). P(H) and P(A) were estimated using Bayesian inference under the assumption that, despite all negative test results, > or =1 infected pigs were present. Model calculations indicated that P(carc) was on average 2.0 x 10(-5) directly after final screening, and 1.7 x 10(-5) after a six-month waiting period. Therefore, the additional waiting time did not substantially reduce P(carc). The estimated values were worst-case scenarios because only viraemic pigs pose a risk for disease transmission, while seropositive pigs do not. The risk of exporting FMD via pig carcasses from a vaccinated area can further be reduced by heat treatment of pork and/or by excluding high-risk pork products from export.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças dos Suínos
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Vacinas Virais
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Surtos de Doenças
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Probabilidade
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Febre Aftosa
Tipo de estudo:
Prevalence_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2010
Tipo de documento:
Article