The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation.
Epidemiol Infect
; 139(7): 1029-38, 2011 Jul.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-20843389
ABSTRACT
The factors underlying the temporal dynamics of rubella outside of Europe and North America are not well known. Here we used 20 years of incidence reports from Mexico to identify variation in seasonal forcing and magnitude of transmission across the country and to explore determinants of inter-annual variability in epidemic magnitude in rubella. We found considerable regional variation in both magnitude of transmission and amplitude of seasonal variation in transmission. Several lines of evidence pointed to stochastic dynamics as an important driver of multi-annual cycles. Since average age of infection increased with the relative importance of stochastic dynamics, this conclusion has implications for the burden of congenital rubella syndrome. We discuss factors underlying regional variation, and implications of the importance of stochasticity for vaccination implementation.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Rubéola (Sarampo Alemão)
/
México
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
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Screening_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
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Adult
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Child
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Child, preschool
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Humans
/
Infant
País como assunto:
Mexico
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2011
Tipo de documento:
Article