Predicting success of metabolic surgery: age, body mass index, C-peptide, and duration score.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Surgery is the most effective treatment of morbid obesity and leads to dramatic improvements in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Gastrointestinal metabolic surgery has been proposed as a treatment option for T2DM. However, a grading system to categorize and predict the outcome of metabolic surgery is lacking. The study setting was a tertiary referral hospital (Taoyuan City, Taoyuan County, Taiwan). METHODS: We first evaluated 63 patients and identified 4 factors that predicted the success of T2DM remission after bariatric surgery in this cohort body mass index, C-peptide level, T2DM duration, and patient age. We used these variables to construct the Diabetes Surgery Score, a multidimensional 10-point scale along which greater scores indicate a better chance of T2DM remission. We then validated the index in a prospective collected cohort of 176 patients, using remission of T2DM at 1 year after surgery as the outcome variable. RESULTS: A total of 48 T2DM remissions occurred among the 63 patients and 115 remissions (65.3%) in the validation cohort. Patients with T2DM remission after surgery had a greater Diabetes Surgery Score than those without (8 ± 4 versus 4 ± 4, P < .05). Patients with a greater Diabetes Surgery Score also had a greater rate of success with T2DM remission (from 33% at score 0 to 100% at score 10); A 1-point increase in the Diabetes Surgery Score translated to an absolute 6.7% in the success rate. CONCLUSION: The Diabetes Surgery Score is a simple multidimensional grading system that can predict the success of T2DM treatment using bariatric surgery among patients with inadequately controlled T2DM.