[Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecosystem services as affected by urban expansion: A case study in coastal area of Tianjin, North China].

ABSTRACT

Based on the modified Logistic-CA model, and taking the coastal area of Tianjin as a case, this paper simulated the spatial evolution patterns of ecosystem services as affected by the urban expansion in 2011-2020 under the scenarios of historical extrapolation, endogenous development, and exogenous development. Overall, the total ecosystem services of the study area under the three scenarios were generally the same, and the functional region with the lowest level ecosystem services had the identical spatial pattern. However, the spatial evolution patterns of the ecosystem services of the study area under the three scenarios had a great difference. The functional regions with lower-level ecosystem services grew in a cross-shaped pattern, with the Tanggu downtown as a center, and finally formed a full connectivity area along the Haihe River and coastal zone.