Identification and testing of early indicators for N leaching from urine patches.

Nitrogen leaching from urine patches has been identified as a major source of nitrogen loss under intensive grazing dairy farming. Leaching is notoriously variable, influenced by management, soil type, year-to-year variation in climate and timing and rate of urine depositions. To identify early indicators for the risk of N leaching from urine patches for potential usage in a precision management system, we used the simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator) to produce an extensive N leaching dataset for the Waikato region of New Zealand. In total, nearly forty thousand simulation runs with different combinations of soil type and urine deposition times, in 33 different years, were done. The risk forecasting indicators were chosen based on their practicality: being readily measured on farm (soil water content, temperature and pasture growth) or that could be centrally supplied to farms (such as actual and forecast weather data). The thresholds of the early indicators that are used to forecast a period for high risk of N leaching were determined via classification and regression tree analysis. The most informative factors were soil temperature, pasture dry matter production, and average soil water content in the top soil over the two weeks prior to the urine N application event. Rainfall and air temperature for the two weeks following urine deposition were also important to fine-tune the predictions. The identified early indicators were then tested for their potential to predict the risk of N leaching in two typical soils from the Waikato region in New Zealand. The accuracy of the predictions varied with the number of indicators, the soil type and the risk level, and the number of correct predictions ranged from about 45 to over 90%. Further expansion and fine-tuning of the indicators and the development of a practical N risk tool based on these indicators is needed.