Evaluating processes underlying the predictive value of baseline erosions for future radiological damage in early rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Baseline erosions are characteristic for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and predictive for a severe disease course. The mechanisms leading to baseline erosions being a strong predictor for radiological progression are unknown. We aimed to increase this understanding by mediation analyses in an observational cohort and a cross-sectional MRI study. METHODS: 3256 hands and feet radiographs of 653 early RA patients assessed during 7 years of disease were scored using the Sharp-van der Heijde method. Mediation models and multivariate regression analyses were used to explore the association between baseline erosions, other predictors and radiological damage over time. 603 joints (MCP2-5 and MTP1-5) of 67 RA patients underwent 1.5 T MRI at baseline. Data on MRI inflammation were compared with clinical inflammation and baseline radiological erosions. RESULTS: Patients with baseline erosions had, at any point in time during 7 years, 3.45 times more joint damage than patients without erosions (p<0.001, 95% CI 3.00 to 3.98). Baseline erosions were an independent predictor and not a mediator between symptom duration, systemic or local clinical inflammation (erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), swollen joint count (SJC)) or autoantibodies (anti-citrullinated-peptide antibodies, rheumatoid factor) and radiological damage. Subclinical MRI inflammation was studied in relation to erosions, revealing that 83% of the non-swollen joints with baseline erosions had subclinical MRI inflammation compared with 25% of the non-swollen joints without baseline erosions (OR 15.2 95% CI 3.1 to 102.1). The association between MRI inflammation and baseline erosions was independent of symptom duration, ESR, SJC and autoantibodies. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline erosions are a predictor for future joint damage, independent of known predictors as time, autoantibodies or clinical measurable inflammation. Subclinical inflammation is suggested as an underlying mechanism.