Clinical and immunologic predictors of death after an acute opportunistic infection: results from ACTG A5164.

BACKGROUND: In the pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) era, markers of increased disease severity during an acute opportunistic infection (OI) were associated with mortality. Even with ART, mortality remains high during the first year after an OI in persons with advanced HIV infection, but it is unclear whether previous predictors of mortality remain valid in the current era. OBJECTIVE: To determine clinical and immunological predictors of death after an OI. METHODS: We used clinical data and stored plasma from ACTG A5164, a multicenter study evaluating the optimal timing of ART during a nontuberculous OI. We developed Cox models evaluating associations between clinical parameters and plasma marker levels at entry and time to death over the first 48 weeks after the diagnosis of OI. We developed multivariable models incorporating only clinical parameters, only plasma marker levels, or both. RESULTS: The median CD4+ T-cell count in study participants at baseline was 29 cells/µL. Sixty-four percent of subjects had Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP). Twenty-three of 282 (8.2%) subjects died. In univariate analyses, entry mycobacterial infection, OI number, hospitalization, low albumin, low hemoglobin, lower CD4, and higher IL-8 and sTNFrII levels and lower IL-17 levels were associated with mortality. In the combined model using both clinical and immunologic parameters, the presence of an entry mycobacterial infection and higher sTNFrII levels were significantly associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: In the ART era, clinical risk factors for death previously identified in the pre-ART era remain predictive. Additionally, activation of the innate immune system is associated with an increased risk of death following an acute OI.