Impact of the 2011 heat wave on mortality and emergency department visits in Houston, Texas.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Heat waves have been linked to increased risk of mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a changing climate. Houston and other areas in Texas experienced an exceptional heat wave in the summer of 2011 producing the hottest August on record. This study aims to assess the health-related impact of this heat wave. METHODS: Distributed lag models were used to estimate associations between the 2011 heat wave and all-cause mortality and emergency department (ED) visits from May 1 through September 30 for the five-year period 2007-2011. The 2011 heat wave is defined as a continuous period from August 2 through 30, 2011 according to the heat advisories issued by the local National Weather Service office, and is included in the models as a dummy variable. We compared the estimated excess risk among the models with and without adjustment of continuous temperature and ozone. RESULTS: The 2011 heat wave in Houston was associated with a 3.6% excess risk in ED visits (95% CI 0.6%, 6.6%) and 0.6% increase in mortality risk (95% CI -5.5%, 7.1%). The elderly over 65 years of age were at the greatest risk in ED visits. These patterns are consistent across different heat-wave definitions, and results are similar when adjusting for continuous temperature and ozone. CONCLUSIONS: The 2011 heat wave in Houston had a substantial impact on ED visits and no significant impact on mortality. Our findings provide insights into local heat-wave and health preparations and interventions.