Combined effect of donor and recipient risk on outcome after liver transplantation: Research of the Eurotransplant database.

ABSTRACT

Recently the Eurotransplant donor risk index (ET-DRI) was published, a model based on data from the Eurotransplant database that can be used for risk indication of liver donors within the Eurotransplant region. Because outcome after liver transplantation (LT) depends both on donor and recipient risk factors, a combined donor-recipient model (DRM) would give a more complete picture of the overall risk involved. All liver transplants in adult recipients from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010 in the Eurotransplant region were included. Risk factors in donors and recipients for failure-free (retransplant free) survival were analyzed in univariate and multivariate analyses. A simplified recipient risk index (sRRI) was constructed using all available recipient factors. A total of 4466 liver transplants were analyzed. Median donor risk index and ET-DRI were 1.78 and 1.91, respectively. The ET-DRI was validated in this new cohort (P < 0.001; concordance index [c-index], 0.59). After construction of a simplified recipient risk index of significant recipient factors, Cox regression analysis showed that the combination ET-DRI and sRRI into a new DRM gave the highest predictive value (P < 0.001; c-index, 0.62). The combined model of ET-DRI and sRRI gave a significant prediction of outcome after orthotopic LT in the Eurotransplant region, better than the ET-DRI alone. This DRM has potential in comparing data in the literature and correcting for sickness/physical condition of transplant recipients. It is a first step toward benchmarking of graft survival in the Eurotransplant region.