Analysis of Food Hub Commerce and Participation Using Agent-Based Modeling: Integrating Financial and Social Drivers.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Factors influencing long-term viability of an intermediated regional food supply network (food hub) were modeled using agent-based modeling techniques informed by interview data gathered from food hub participants. BACKGROUND: Previous analyses of food hub dynamics focused primarily on financial drivers rather than social factors and have not used mathematical models. METHOD: Based on qualitative and quantitative data gathered from 22 customers and 11 vendors at a midwestern food hub, an agent-based model (ABM) was created with distinct consumer personas characterizing the range of consumer priorities. A comparison study determined if the ABM behaved differently than a model based on traditional economic assumptions. Further simulation studies assessed the effect of changes in parameters, such as producer reliability and the consumer profiles, on long-term food hub sustainability. RESULTS: The persona-based ABM model produced different and more resilient results than the more traditional way of modeling consumers. Reduced producer reliability significantly reduced trade; in some instances, a modest reduction in reliability threatened the sustainability of the system. Finally, a modest increase in price-driven consumers at the outset of the simulation quickly resulted in those consumers becoming a majority of the overall customer base. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that social factors, such as desire to support the community, can be more important than financial factors. APPLICATION An ABM of food hub dynamics, based on human factors data gathered from the field, can be a useful tool for policy decisions. Similar approaches can be used for modeling customer dynamics with other sustainable organizations.