Factors Associated with Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Occurrence After Endoscopy that Did Not Diagnose Cancer.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Up to 14 % of upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGIC) subjects underwent esophago-gastro-duodenoscopy (EGD) in the preceding 3 years, which did not detect UGIC. The frequency of such events and associated risk factors was evaluated. METHODS: UGIC subjects were identified from a UK primary care database. Post-EGD upper gastrointestinal cancers (PEUGIC) cases were subjects undergoing EGD 12-36 months prior to UGIC diagnosis. Controls had not undergone EGD during the same period. Logistic regression analysis examined associations with PEUGIC. RESULTS: 4249 gastric cancer (GC) subjects (44.8 %) and 5238 esophageal cancer (EC) subjects (55.2 %) were analyzed. There were 633 (6.7 %) PEUGIC subjects [279 EC and 354 GC]. Multivariate analysis revealed that younger age [OR 1.02, (95 % CI 1.01-1.03), p < 0.0001], female gender [1.39 (1.17-1.64), p < 0.0001], increasing comorbidity [1.35 (1.13-1.61), p < 0.0001], and greater deprivation [1.31 (1.09-1.59), p = 0.005] were associated with PEUGIC. Alarm symptoms on presentation [0.32 (0.26-0.40), p < 0.0001] were less likely to be associated with PEUGIC. GC was more likely to be associated with PEUGIC than EC [1.33 (1.13-1.58), p = 0.001]. PEUGIC EGDs reported findings associated with UGIC (stricture or ulceration) in 8.3 % of cases, and only 60.9 % had a follow-up EGD within 90 days. PEUGIC rate declined from 7.9 to 2.7 % for EC and 9.0-6.5 % for GC during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: PEUGIC occurs in 6.7 % of UGIC. PEUGIC was associated with GC, younger age, female gender, increasing comorbidity and deprivation, and a lack of alarm symptoms.