[Horizon scanning in preparation for future health threats: a pilot exercise conducted by the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance in 2014]. / La veille prospective, une démarche de préparation aux futures menaces de la santé publiqueâ: exercice mené à l'Institut de veille sanitaire en 2014.
Sante Publique
; 28(3): 309-19, 2016.
Article
em Fr
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-27531429
ABSTRACT
Background:
Health surveillance is a reactive process, with no real hindsight for dealing with signals and alerts. It may fail to detect more radical changes with a major medium-term or long-term impact on public health. To increase proactivity, the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance has opted for a prospective monitoring approach.Methods:
Several steps were necessary 1) Identification of public health determinants. 2) Identification of key variables based on a combination of determinants. Variables were classified into three groups (health event trigger factors, dissemination factors and response factors) and were submitted to future development assumptions. 3) Identification, in each of the three groups, of micro-scenarios derived from variable trends. 4) Identification of macro-scenarios, each built from the three micro-scenarios for each of the three groups. 5) Identification of issues for the future of public health.Results:
The exercise identified 22 key variables, 17 micro-scenarios and 5 macro-scenarios. The topics retained relate to issues on social and territorial health inequalities, health burden, individual and collective responsibilities in terms of health, ethical aspects, emerging phenomena, 'Big data', data mining, new health technologies, interlocking of analysis scales.Conclusions:
The approach presented here guides the programming of activities of a health safety agency, particularly for monitoring and surveillance. By describing possible future scenarios, health surveillance can help decision-makers to influence the context towards one or more favourable futures.Palavras-chave
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Vigilância em Saúde Pública
/
Planejamento em Saúde
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
País como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
Fr
Ano de publicação:
2016
Tipo de documento:
Article