A Clinical and Biomarker Scoring System to Predict the Presence of Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive models to predict the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) may help reduce the societal burden of CAD. OBJECTIVES: From a prospective registry of patients referred for coronary angiography, the goal of this study was to develop a clinical and biomarker score to predict the presence of significant CAD. METHODS: In a training cohort of 649 subjects, predictors of ≥70% stenosis in at least 1 major coronary vessel were identified from >200 candidate variables, including 109 biomarkers. The final model was then validated in a separate cohort (n = 278). RESULTS: The scoring system consisted of clinical variables (male sex and previous percutaneous coronary intervention) and 4 biomarkers (midkine, adiponectin, apolipoprotein C-I, and kidney injury molecule-1). In the training cohort, elevated scores were predictive of ≥70% stenosis in all subjects (odds ratio [OR] 9.74; p < 0.001), men (OR 7.88; p <0.001), women (OR 24.8; p < 0.001), and those with no previous CAD (OR 8.67; p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the score had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.87 (p < 0.001) for coronary stenosis ≥70%. Higher scores were associated with greater severity of angiographic stenosis. At optimal cutoff, the score had 77% sensitivity, 84% specificity, and a positive predictive value of 90% for ≥70% stenosis. Partitioning the score into 5 levels allowed for identifying or excluding CAD with >90% predictive value in 42% of subjects. An elevated score predicted incident acute myocardial infarction during 3.6 years of follow up (hazard ratio 2.39; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We described a clinical and biomarker score with high accuracy for predicting the presence of anatomically significant CAD. (The CASABLANCA Study Catheter Sampled Blood Archive in Cardiovascular Diseases; NCT00842868).