Clinical risk scoring for predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in metabolic syndrome patients (NAFLD-MS score).
Liver Int
; 37(10): 1535-1543, 2017 10.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28294515
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND & AIMS:
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress from simple steatosis to hepatocellular carcinoma. None of tools have been developed specifically for high-risk patients. This study aimed to develop a simple risk scoring to predict NAFLD in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS).METHODS:
A total of 509 patients with MetS were recruited. All were diagnosed by clinicians with ultrasonography-confirmed whether they were patients with NAFLD. Patients were randomly divided into derivation (n=400) and validation (n=109) cohort. To develop the risk score, clinical risk indicators measured at the time of recruitment were built by logistic regression. Regression coefficients were transformed into item scores and added up to a total score. A risk scoring scheme was developed from clinical predictors BMI ≥25, AST/ALT ≥1, ALT ≥40, type 2 diabetes mellitus and central obesity. The scoring scheme was applied in validation cohort to test the performance.RESULTS:
The scheme explained, by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC), 76.8% of being NAFLD with good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 =4.35; P=.629). The positive likelihood ratio of NAFLD in patients with low risk (scores below 3) and high risk (scores 5 and over) were 2.32 (95% CI 1.90-2.82) and 7.77 (95% CI 2.47-24.47) respectively. When applied in validation cohort, the score showed good performance with AuROC 76.7%, and illustrated 84%, and 100% certainty in low- and high-risk groups respectively.CONCLUSIONS:
A simple and non-invasive scoring scheme of five predictors provides good prediction indices for NAFLD in MetS patients. This scheme may help clinicians in order to take further appropriate action.Palavras-chave
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão
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Síndrome Metabólica
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Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article