Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia.
Epidemiol Infect
; 145(13): 2856-2863, 2017 10.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28768560
ABSTRACT
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly mixed crop-livestock system and in intensive commercial herd types. The transmission parameters were based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with environmental transmission and estimated using generalized linear models. The transmission parameters were estimated using a survival rate of infectious virus in the environment equal to 0·325 per day, a value based on the best-fitting statistical model. The transmission rate parameter between animals was 0·072 (95% CI 0·068-0·076) per day in the crop-livestock production system, whereas this transmission rate in intensive production system was 0·076 (95% CI 0·068-0·085) per day. The reproduction ratio (R) of LSD between animals in the crop-livestock production system was 1·07, whereas it was 1·09 between animals in the intensive production system. The calculated R provides a baseline against which various control options can be assessed for efficacy.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doença Nodular Cutânea
/
Vírus da Doença Nodular Cutânea
/
Criação de Animais Domésticos
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
País como assunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article