Longitudinal Changes in the Blood Supply and Demand in North-East-Germany 2005-2015.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Securing future blood supply is a major issue of transfusion safety. In this prospective 10-year longitudinal study we enrolled all blood donation services and hospitals of the federal state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. METHODS AND RESULTS: From 2005 to 2015 (time period with major demographic effects), whole blood donation numbers declined by 18%. In male donors this paralleled the demographic change, while donation rates of females declined 12.4% more than expected from demography. In parallel, red cell transfusion rates/1,000 population decreased from 2005 to 2015 from 56 to 51 (-8.4%), primarily due to less transfusions in patients >60 years. However, the transfusion demand declined much less than blood donation numbers -13.5% versus -18%, and the population >65 years (highest transfusion demand) will further increase. The key question is whether the decline in transfusion demand observed over the previous years will further continue, hereby compensating for reduced blood donation numbers due to the demographic change. The population structure of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania reflects all Eastern German federal states, while the Western German federal states will reach similar ratios of age groups 18-64 years / ≥65 years about 10 years later. CONCLUSIONS: Regular monitoring of age- and sex-specific donation and transfusion data is urgently required to allow transfusion services strategic planning for securing future blood supply.