Clinical risk score to predict likelihood of recurrence after ductal carcinoma in situ treated with breast-conserving surgery.
Breast Cancer Res Treat
; 167(3): 751-759, 2018 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29079937
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
A majority of women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) receive breast-conserving surgery (BCS) but then face a risk of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) which can be either recurrence of DCIS or invasive breast cancer. We developed a score to provide individualized information about IBTR risk to guide treatment decisions.METHODS:
Data from 2762 patients treated with BCS for DCIS at centers within the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) were used to identify statistically significant non-treatment-related predictors for 5-year IBTR. Factors most associated with IBTR were estrogen-receptor status of the DCIS, presence of comedo necrosis, and patient age at diagnosis. These three parameters were used to create a point-based risk score. Discrimination of this score was assessed in a separate DCIS population of 301 women (100 with IBTR and 200 without) from Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC).RESULTS:
Using NCCN data, the 5-year likelihood of IBTR without adjuvant therapy was 9% (95% CI 5-12%), 23% (95% CI 13-32%), and 51% (95% CI 26-75%) in the low, intermediate, and high-risk groups, respectively. Addition of the risk score to a model including only treatment improved the C-statistic from 0.69 to 0.74 (improvement of 0.05). Cross-validation of the score resulted in a C-statistic of 0.76. The score had a c-statistic of 0.67 using the KPNC data, revealing that it discriminated well.CONCLUSIONS:
This simple, no-cost risk score may be used by patients and physicians to facilitate preference-based decision-making about DCIS management informed by a more accurate understanding of risks.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias da Mama
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Mastectomia Segmentar
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Carcinoma Intraductal não Infiltrante
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Recidiva Local de Neoplasia
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Female
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Humans
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article