Probabilistic sensitivity analysis on Markov models with uncertain transition probabilities: an application in evaluating treatment decisions for type 2 diabetes.
Health Care Manag Sci
; 22(1): 34-52, 2019 Mar.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29080053
ABSTRACT
Markov models are commonly used for decision-making studies in many application domains; however, there are no widely adopted methods for performing sensitivity analysis on such models with uncertain transition probability matrices (TPMs). This article describes two simulation-based approaches for conducting probabilistic sensitivity analysis on a given discrete-time, finite-horizon, finite-state Markov model using TPMs that are sampled over a specified uncertainty set according to a relevant probability distribution. The first approach assumes no prior knowledge of the probability distribution, and each row of a TPM is independently sampled from the uniform distribution on the row's uncertainty set. The second approach involves random sampling from the (truncated) multivariate normal distribution of the TPM's maximum likelihood estimators for its rows subject to the condition that each row has nonnegative elements and sums to one. The two sampling methods are easily implemented and have reasonable computation times. A case study illustrates the application of these methods to a medical decision-making problem involving the evaluation of treatment guidelines for glycemic control of patients with type 2 diabetes, where natural variation in a patient's glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is modeled as a Markov chain, and the associated TPMs are subject to uncertainty.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Tomada de Decisões
/
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Guideline
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Health_economic_evaluation
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Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article