Forecasting the spatial and seasonal dynamic of Aedes albopictus oviposition activity in Albania and Balkan countries.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis
; 12(2): e0006236, 2018 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29432489
ABSTRACT
The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US raises public health concern due to the species competence to transmit several exotic human arboviruses, among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and urges the development of suitable modeling approach to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of the mosquito. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach forecasting Ae. albopictus eggs abundance at high spatial (0.01 degree WGS84) and temporal (weekly) resolution over 10 Balkan countries, using temperature times series of Modis data products and altitude as input predictors. The model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated over Albania based observed eggs abundance data weekly monitored during three years. For a given week of the year, eggs abundance was mainly predicted by the number of eggs and the mean temperature recorded in the preceding weeks. That is, results are in agreement with the biological cycle of the mosquito, reflecting the effect temperature on eggs spawning, maturation and hatching. The model, seeded by initial egg values derived from a second model, was then used to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs abundance over the selected Balkan countries, weekly in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The present study is a baseline to develop an easy-handling forecasting model able to provide information useful for promoting active surveillance and possibly prevention of Ae. albopictus colonization in presently non-infested areas in the Balkans as well as in other temperate regions.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Oviposição
/
Aedes
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
País como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article