Mathematical analysis to prioritise strategies for malaria elimination.
J Theor Biol
; 455: 118-130, 2018 10 14.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30006002
ABSTRACT
Malaria and some other tropical diseases are currently targeted for elimination and eventually eradication. Since resources are limited, prioritisation of countries or areas for elimination is often necessary. However, this prioritisation is frequently conducted in an ad hoc manner. Lower transmission areas are usually targeted for elimination first, but for some areas this necessitates long and potentially expensive surveillance programs while transmission is eliminated from neighbouring higher transmission areas. We use a mathematical model to compare the implications of prioritisation choices in reducing overall burden and costs. We show that when the duration of the elimination program is independent of the transmission potential, burden is always reduced most by targeting high transmission areas first, but to reduce costs the optimal ordering depends on the actual transmission levels. In general, when overall transmission potential is low and the surveillance cost per secondary case compared to the cost per imported case is low, targeting the higher transmission area for elimination first is favoured.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença
/
Modelos Econômicos
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Erradicação de Doenças
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Malária
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article