Evaluation of Plasmodium vivax malaria recurrence in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Control of vivax malaria in endemic areas requires management of recurrence. The Brazilian National Malaria Surveillance System (SIVEP-Malária) records every case of malaria in Brazil, but is not designed to differentiate between primary and recurrent infections. The aim of this study was to explore whether the information provided by SIVEP-Malária could be used to identify Plasmodium vivax recurrences, its risk factors and evaluate the effectiveness of short course primaquine (7-9 days: total dose 3-4.2 mg/kg) in preventing relapses. METHODS: In this observational retrospective cohort study, data matching of SIVEP-Malária records was undertaken using bloom filters to identify potential recurrences defined as microscopically-confirmed P. vivax episodes from the same individual occurring within a year. Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) models were used to determine predictors of recurrence. Extended Cox-based conditional Prentice-Williams-Peterson models (PWP) models were used to evaluate time to recurrence. RESULTS: Between June 1, 2014 and May 31, 2015, 26,295 episodes fulfilled the criteria of potential recurrence among 154,970 reported malaria episodes. Age ≤ 3 years, being male, literate, not-indigenous and having domestic working activities were identified as risk factors for recurrence. There was no difference in time to recurrence or recurrence frequency between patients treated with 14-day or 7-9 day primaquine regimens (HR = 1.02, 0.96-1.09) and RR = 0.97 (0.90-1.04), respectively. The use of chloroquine alone was associated with a 1.43 (1.29-1.58, p < 0.0001) increased risk of P. vivax recurrence compared to patients who used chloroquine combined with short-course primaquine, the Brazilian standard of care. This was RR = 2.06 (1.48-2.86, p < 0.0001), RR = 1.90 (1.60-2.25, p = 0.0001) and RR = 1.14 (1.00-1.29, p = 0.05) for recurrences occurring between 3-28, 29-60 and > 60 days, respectively. PWP models showed that the time to recurrence was longer in recipients of both primaquine and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) compared to patients treated with chloroquine alone or with concomitant primaquine, HR = 2.2 (1.62-2.99, p < 0.0001), HR = 1.27 (0.97-1.66, p = 0.08), respectively. CONCLUSION: Short course primaquine was as effective as 14-day regimens and associated with a halving of the risk and delay in time to recurrence of P. vivax infections in comparison to chloroquine alone. The study demonstrates the feasibility of using record linkage on routine surveillance data to identify potential P. vivax recurrences, associated risk factors and impact of treatment.