Panel of novel urine biomarkers for incident microalbuminuria in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

AIM: The need to identify novel biomarkers for early diagnosis and treatment of diabetic nephropathy is widely recognized. However, only a few studies have investigated the association between biomarkers and the onset of albuminuria. In this study, we aimed to investigate a panel of biomarkers suitable for predicting microalbuminuria. METHODS: Some 346 Japanese people with type 2 diabetes exhibiting normoalbuminuria were studied. The endpoint was defined as the onset of microalbuminuria. Thirty biomarkers were selected from among urinary biomarkers described in previous studies. A panel of biomarkers was selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The prognostic performance of the developed panel was evaluated. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 6.2 years, 45 people progressed to microalbuminuria. A composite panel of six biomarkers (monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, osteopontin, soluble human tumour necrosis factor receptor-1, tenascin C, vascular endothelial growth factor-A and kidney injury molecule-1) was developed using LASSO. Compared with the basal model comprising estimated GFR and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, addition of these six biomarkers significantly increased the overall C index from 0.773 to 0.824 (P = 0.019). Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were estimated to be 0.412 (P = 0.049) and 0.040 (P = 0.040), respectively. Decision curve analysis also showed that the model with the six novel biomarkers had a better prognostic value for predicting the onset of microalbuminuria. The optimism was moderate or negligible according to measures. CONCLUSIONS: The panel consisting of six novel urinary biomarkers effectively predicted incident microalbuminuria in people with type 2 diabetes.