Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions.
PLoS One
; 15(5): e0232615, 2020.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32379791
ABSTRACT
Economic recessions occur with varying duration and intensity and may entail substantial losses in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and investment spending. In this work, we propose a statistical model for the time intervals between recessions that accounts for the state of the economy and the impact of market adjustments and regulatory changes. The model uses a generalized renewal process based on the Gumbel distribution (GuGRP) in which times between consecutive events are conditionally independent. We also present a novel goodness of fit test tailored to the GuGRP that validates the use of the statistical model for the analysis of recessions. Analyzing recessions in the U.S. and Europe, we demonstrate that the statistical model characterizes well recession inter-arrival times and that the model performs better than simpler, commonly used distributions. In addition, the presented statistical model enables us to compare the adjustment processes in different economies and to forecast the occurrence of future recessions.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Recessão Econômica
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
País como assunto:
America do norte
/
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article