Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 117(22): 12192-12200, 2020 06 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32393624
ABSTRACT
Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that â¼35% of the European and â¼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only â¼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Estações do Ano
/
Árvores
/
Mudança Climática
/
Temperatura Baixa
/
Folhas de Planta
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
País como assunto:
America do norte
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Asia
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Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article