[Study on transmission dynamic of 15 clusters of COVID-2019 cases in Ningbo].
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi
; 41(12): 2010-2014, 2020 Dec 10.
Article
em Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32397699
ABSTRACT
Objective:
To describe the basic characteristics of clusters of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, and evaluate the generation time (Tg) and basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19.Methods:
The basic information and onset times of the clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo were investigated, the inter-generational interval of the cases were fitted by using gamma distribution, and the R(0) was calculated based on the SEIR model.Results:
In the 15 clusters of COVID-19 cases, a total of 52 confirmed cases, 5 cases of nucleic acid-positive asymptomatic cases. The cases occurred from January 23 to February 4, the cases were mainly women. The incubation period was (6.11±3.38) days, and the median was 5 days. The Tg was (6.93±3.70) days. There were no significant differences in Tg between age group<60 years and age group 60 years and above, and between men and women (P=0.551). According to the Tg calculated in this paper, the R(0) of COVID-19 in Ningbo was 3.06 (95%CI 2.64- 3.51); according to the reported case transmission interval of 7.5 days in the literature, the R(0) was 3.32 (95%CI 2.51-9.38).Conclusion:
There is no age and gender specific differences in the Tg of clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo, and COVID-19 has high infectivity and spreading power in early phase.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Female
/
Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
Zh
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article