Applied use of alternate stable state modeling in restoration ecology.

ABSTRACT

The concept of alternate stable states is important in ecological theory and models, but the application and implementation of these models have the potential to make significant future advances in the field of patterned landscapes. The bistable ridge and slough landscape is a central feature of Everglades restoration and provides an important opportunity to test stable state theory with multistate transition models. We used these models to estimate environmental parameters associated with state changes (water depths, edaphic factors, etc.) and develop a quantitative method to measure resilience and stability. The multistate model indicates that long-term, local hydrology (15-yr mean maximums and 15-yr mean amplitude) and edaphic factors control the local scale shifts between ridge and slough states. We show that multistate models can provide hydrologic envelopes for managers, produce a tool to help assess future water management scenarios, and address issues of sustainability, resilience, and restoration for any bistable system.