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Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks.
Hobbelen, Peter H F; Elbers, Armin R W; Werkman, Marleen; Koch, Guus; Velkers, Francisca C; Stegeman, Arjan; Hagenaars, Thomas J.
Afiliação
  • Hobbelen PHF; Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Houtribweg 39, 8221 RA, Lelystad, The Netherlands. peter.hobbelen@wur.nl.
  • Elbers ARW; Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Houtribweg 39, 8221 RA, Lelystad, The Netherlands.
  • Werkman M; Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Houtribweg 39, 8221 RA, Lelystad, The Netherlands.
  • Koch G; Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
  • Velkers FC; Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Houtribweg 39, 8221 RA, Lelystad, The Netherlands.
  • Stegeman A; Department of Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
  • Hagenaars TJ; Department of Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 12388, 2020 07 24.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32709965
ABSTRACT
The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Aves Domésticas / Influenza Aviária Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Animals Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Aves Domésticas / Influenza Aviária Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Animals Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article