COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate.
Epidemiol Infect
; 148: e184, 2020 08 19.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32811577
ABSTRACT
Purpose:
The novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and rapidly spread across the globe. Since most respiratory viruses are known to show a seasonal pattern of infection, it has been hypothesised that SARS-CoV-2 may be seasonally dependent as well. The present study looks at a possible effect of atmospheric temperature, which is one of the suspected factors influencing seasonality, on the evolution of the pandemic. Basic procedures Since confirming a seasonal pattern would take several more months of observation, we conducted an innovative day-to-day micro-correlation analysis of nine outbreak locations, across four continents and both hemispheres, in order to examine a possible relationship between atmospheric temperature (used as a proxy for seasonality) and outbreak progression. Mainfindings:
There was a negative correlation between atmospheric temperature variations and daily new cases growth rates, in all nine outbreaks, with a median lag of 10 days. Principalconclusions:
The results presented here suggest that high temperatures might dampen SARS-CoV-2 propagation, while lower temperatures might increase its transmission. Our hypothesis is that this could support a potential effect of atmospheric temperature on coronavirus disease progression, and potentially a seasonal pattern for this virus, with a peak in the cold season and rarer occurrences in the summer. This could guide government policy in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres for the months to come.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Pneumonia Viral
/
Temperatura
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Infecções por Coronavirus
/
Pandemias
Tipo de estudo:
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article