Machine learning in predicting early remission in patients after surgical treatment of acromegaly: a multicenter study.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Accurate prediction of postoperative remission is beneficial for effective patient-physician communication in acromegalic patients. This study aims to train and validate machine learning prediction models for early endocrine remission of acromegalic patients. METHODS: The training cohort included 833 patients with growth hormone (GH) secreting pituitary adenoma from 2010 to 2018. We trained a partial model (only using pre-operative variables) and a full model (using all variables) to predict off-medication endocrine remission at six-month follow-up after surgery using multiple algorithms. The models were validated in 99 prospectively collected patients from a second campus and 52 patients from a third institution. RESULTS: C-statistic and the accuracy of the best partial model was 0.803 (95% CI 0.757-0.849) and 72.5% (95% CI 67.6-77.5%), respectively. C-statistic and the accuracy of the best full model was 0.888 (95% CI 0.861-0.914) and 80.3% (95% CI 77.5-83.1%), respectively. The c-statistics (and accuracy) of using only Knosp grade, total resection, or postoperative day 1 GH level as the single predictor were lower than our partial model or full model (p < 0.001). C-statistics remained similar in the prospective cohort (partial model 0.798, and full model 0.903) and in the external cohort (partial model 0.771, and full model 0.871). A web-based application integrated with the trained models was published at  https//deepvep.shinyapps.io/Acropred/ . CONCLUSION: We developed and validated interpretable and applicable machine learning models to predict early endocrine remission after surgical resection of a GH-secreting pituitary adenoma. Predication accuracy of the trained models were better than those using single variables.