Bleeding risk prediction in elderly patients managed invasively for acute coronary syndromes: External validation of the PRECISE-DAPT and PARIS scores.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We sought to assess and compare the prediction power of the PRECISE-DAPT and PARIS risk scores with regards to bleeding events in elderly patients suffering from acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and undergoing invasive management. METHODS: Our external validation cohort included 1883 patients older >74 years admitted for ACS and treated with PCI from 3 prospective, multicenter trials. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 365 days, patients in the high-risk categories according to the PRECISE-DAPT score experienced a higher rate of BARC 3-5 bleedings (p = 0.002) while this was not observed for those in the high-risk category according to the PARIS risk score (p = 0.3). Both scores had a moderate discriminative power (c-statistics 0.70 and 0.64, respectively) and calibration was accurate for both risk scores (all χ2 > 0.05), but PARIS risk score was associated to a greater overestimation of the risk (p = 0.02). Decision curve analysis was in favor of the PRECISE-DAPT score up to a risk threshold of 2%. CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of older adults managed invasively for ACS both the PARIS and the PRECISE-DAPT scores were moderately accurate in predicting bleeding risk. However, the use of the PRECISE-DAPT is associated with better performance.