Development and validation of a risk score for the prediction of cardiovascular disease in living donor kidney transplant recipients.
Nephrol Dial Transplant
; 36(2): 365-374, 2021 01 25.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33367750
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of death in kidney transplant (KT) recipients. To improve their long-term survival, it is clinically important to estimate the risk of CVD after living donor KT via adequate pre-transplant CVD screening.METHODS:
A derivation cohort containing 331 KT recipients underwent living donor KT at Kyushu University Hospital from January 2006 to December 2012. A prediction model was retrospectively developed and risk scores were investigated via a Cox proportional hazards regression model. The discrimination and calibration capacities of the prediction model were estimated via the c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. External validation was estimated via the same statistical methods by applying the model to a validation cohort of 300 KT recipients who underwent living donor KT at Tokyo Women's Medical University Hospital.RESULTS:
In the derivation cohort, 28 patients (8.5%) had CVD events during the observation period. Recipient age, CVD history, diabetic nephropathy, dialysis vintage, serum albumin and proteinuria at 12 months after KT were significant predictors of CVD. A prediction model consisting of integer risk scores demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic 0.88) and goodness of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.18). In a validation cohort, the model demonstrated moderate discrimination (c-statistic 0.77) and goodness of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.15), suggesting external validity.CONCLUSIONS:
The above-described simple model for predicting CVD after living donor KT was accurate and useful in clinical situations.Palavras-chave
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças Cardiovasculares
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Transplante de Rim
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Doadores Vivos
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Transplantados
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Nefropatias
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article