Preoperative MRI-based estimation of risk for positive resection margin after radical prostatectomy in patients with prostate cancer: development and validation of a simple scoring system.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a simplified MRI-based model to predict the risk for positive surgical margins (PSMs) after radical prostatectomy (RP) in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS: Consecutive patients who underwent RP for PCa were retrospectively identified from a tertiary referral hospital. Patients who underwent RP between January 2014 and June 2014 were assigned as derivation cohort (n = 330) and those between January 2018 and February 2018 were assigned as validation cohort (n = 100). MRI-based predictors associated with PSM were assessed: tumor size, tumor-capsule contact length, the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) category, tumor location (tumor contact to the apex or posterolateral side near the neurovascular bundle), apical depth, and prostate volume. A prediction model was developed by using multivariable logistic regression, and then it was transformed into a scoring system. The prediction and calibration performance of this scoring system was evaluated using the C statistics and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: A total of 121 (36.7%) and 32 (32.0%) of patients in the derivation and validation cohorts had PSMs after RP. The scoring system consisted of the following variables: tumor-capsule contact length, PI-RADS category, tumor located at the apex and/or posterolateral side. This scoring system provided good prediction performance for PSM in the derivation (C statistics, 0.80 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.85]) and validation (C statistics, 0.77 [95% CI: 0.68, 0.87]) cohorts, and also showed good calibration in both cohorts (p = 0.83 and 0.86, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: An MRI-based scoring system can help estimate the risk of PSM after RP. KEY POINTS: • An MRI-based scoring system served as a tool to estimate the risk of positive surgical margin (C statistics, 0.80 and 0.77 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively) after radical prostatectomy. • Tumor with contact to the apex or posterolateral aspect, the tumor contact length to capsule, and higher PI-RADS category were independent predictors for the presence of positive resection margins after radical prostatectomy in men with prostate cancer. • High-risk patients as determined by the scoring system demonstrated adverse post-surgical outcomes compared with low- or intermediate-risk patients, in regard to longer length (mean length, 13.0 mm versus 3.9 mm in low risk or 6.2 mm in intermediate risk; p ≤ 0.001) and higher Gleason grade at the margin (grades 4 and 5 in 69.4% and 20.4% versus 16.7% and 16.7% in low risk or 46.7% and 5.4% in intermediate risk; p < 0.001).