Mid-term trends and recent birth-cohort-dependent changes in incidence rates of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy.
Int J Cancer
; 148(4): 835-844, 2021 02 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33405292
ABSTRACT
In Oceania, North America and north-western Europe, after decades of increase, cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) rates began to stabilise or decline before 2000. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the reversal of the incidence trend is extending to southern Europe. To obtain a formal confirmation, this nationwide study from Italy investigated the incidence trends by birth cohort. Twenty-one local cancer registries covering a population of 15 814 455 provided incidence data for primary CMM registered between 1994 and 2013. Trends in age-standardised rates were analysed using joinpoint regression models and age-period-cohort models. Age-standardised incidence showed a consistent increase throughout the period (estimated annual percent change, 3.6 [95% confidence interval, 3.2-4.0] among men and 2.5 [2.0-3.1] among women). This pattern was confirmed by a sensitivity analysis with removal of low-risk populations of southern Italy. The rates, however, showed a stabilisation or a decrease in men and women aged below 35. Using the cohort of 1949-the median cohort with respect to the number of cases for both genders-as a reference, the incidence rate ratio increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men), and subsequently tended to decline. For the most recent cohorts in both genders, the risk of disease returned to the level of the cohort of 1949. The changes observed in the latest generations can be interpreted as the earliest manifestations of a birth-cohort-dependent incidence decrease. Our study adds to previous data indicating that the reversal of the long-term upward incidence trend of CMM is extending to southern Europe.
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Cutâneas
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Sistema de Registros
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Medição de Risco
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Melanoma
Tipo de estudo:
Clinical_trials
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Etiology_studies
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Incidence_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
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Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article