Baseline severity of myelopathy predicts neurological outcomes after posterior decompression surgery for cervical spondylotic myelopathy: a retrospective study.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective multicenter study. OBJECTIVES: To identify the usefulness of the baseline severity of myelopathy for predicting surgical outcomes for cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). SETTING: Seventeen institutions in Japan. METHODS: This study included 675 persons with CSM who underwent posterior decompression. According to baseline severity, the individuals were divided into the mild (Japanese Orthopaedic Association [JOA] score ≥ 14.5), moderate (JOA score = 10.5-14), and severe (JOA score ≤ 10) groups. Surgical outcomes and clinical variables were compared between the groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model for unsatisfactory symptom state (postoperative JOA score ≤ 14, residual moderate or severe myelopathy). RESULTS: The mean (±standard deviation) age was 67 ± 12 years. The participants in the severe group were older than those in the mild group. Postoperative JOA scores were higher in the mild group than in the severe group. According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, the prediction model included preoperative JOA scores (odds ratio [OR] 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.67) and age (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.08). On the basis of the model, a representative combination of the thresholds to maximize the value of "sensitivity - (1 - specificity)" demonstrated a preoperative JOA score of 11.5 as a predictor of postoperative unsatisfactory symptom state in people around the mean age of the study cohort (67 years). CONCLUSIONS: The combination of the baseline severity of myelopathy and age can predict postoperative symptom states after posterior decompression surgery for CSM.