The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States.
Clin Infect Dis
; 73(12): 2257-2264, 2021 12 16.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33515252
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States.METHODS:
We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States.RESULTS:
Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 4.3%-5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI 8.4%-9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI 60.3%-66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI 62.2%-68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI 65.5%-73.1%), respectively, across the same period.CONCLUSIONS:
Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Child
/
Humans
País como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article