Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Accounting for Future Initiation of Statin Treatment.
Am J Epidemiol
; 190(10): 2000-2014, 2021 10 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33595074
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk-prediction models are used to identify high-risk individuals and guide statin initiation. However, these models are usually derived from individuals who might initiate statins during follow-up. We present a simple approach to address statin initiation to predict "statin-naive" CVD risk. We analyzed primary care data (2004-2017) from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 1,678,727 individuals (aged 40-85 years) without CVD or statin treatment history at study entry. We derived age- and sex-specific prediction models including conventional risk factors and a time-dependent effect of statin initiation constrained to 25% risk reduction (from trial results). We compared predictive performance and measures of public-health impact (e.g., number needed to screen to prevent 1 event) against models ignoring statin initiation. During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 103,163 individuals developed CVD. In models accounting for (versus ignoring) statin initiation, 10-year CVD risk predictions were slightly higher; predictive performance was moderately improved. However, few individuals were reclassified to a high-risk threshold, resulting in negligible improvements in number needed to screen to prevent 1 event. In conclusion, incorporating statin effects from trial results into risk-prediction models enables statin-naive CVD risk estimation and provides moderate gains in predictive ability but had a limited impact on treatment decision-making under current guidelines in this population.
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Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças Cardiovasculares
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Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão
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Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases
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Tomada de Decisão Clínica
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Guideline
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article