Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis
; 15(2): e0009056, 2021 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33626051
ABSTRACT
While many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In this study, we assessed how much variability in COVID-19 activity is attributable to city-level socio-demographic characteristics, meteorological factors, and the control measures imposed. We obtained the daily incidence of COVID-19, city-level characteristics, and meteorological data from a total of 102 cities situated in 27 provinces/municipalities outside Hubei province in China from 1 January 2020 to 8 March 2020, which largely covers almost the first wave of the epidemic. Generalized linear mixed effect models were employed to examine the variance in the incidence of COVID-19 explained by different combinations of variables. According to the results, including the control measure effects in a model substantially raised the explained variance to 45%, which increased by >40% compared to the null model that did not include any covariates. On top of that, including temperature and relative humidity in the model could only result in < 1% increase in the explained variance even though the meteorological factors showed a statistically significant association with the incidence rate of COVID-19. In conclusion, we showed that very limited variability of the COVID-19 incidence was attributable to meteorological factors. Instead, the control measures could explain a larger proportion of variance.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Controle de Infecções
/
Meio Ambiente
/
COVID-19
/
Conceitos Meteorológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article