Estimating the Impact of Economic Fluctuations on Unemployment in Russian Regions Based on the Okun Model.

ABSTRACT

Based on the modified Okun's model, the article evaluates the impact of changes in production volumes on the dynamics of unemployment in Russia and three regional clusters differing in the unemployment rate and behavioral responses to economic shocks. Assessing the specifications of the basic Okun model on the data of 2010-2020 made it possible to identify a cyclical reaction of the unemployment rate in heterogeneous regional clusters to changes in output volumes.