A predictive internet-based model for COVID-19 hospitalization census.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 5106, 2021 03 03.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33658529
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has strained hospital resources and necessitated the need for predictive models to forecast patient care demands in order to allow for adequate staffing and resource allocation. Recently, other studies have looked at associations between Google Trends data and the number of COVID-19 cases. Expanding on this approach, we propose a vector error correction model (VECM) for the number of COVID-19 patients in a healthcare system (Census) that incorporates Google search term activity and healthcare chatbot scores. The VECM provided a good fit to Census and very good forecasting performance as assessed by hypothesis tests and mean absolute percentage prediction error. Although our study and model have limitations, we have conducted a broad and insightful search for candidate Internet variables and employed rigorous statistical methods. We have demonstrated the VECM can potentially be a valuable component to a COVID-19 surveillance program in a healthcare system.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Ferramenta de Busca
/
Previsões
/
Hospitalização
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article