Preoperative risk grade predicts the long-term prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cumulating evidence indicates that the systemic inflammatory response (SIR) plays a crucial role in the prognosis of various cancers. We aimed to generate a preoperative risk grade (PRG) by integrating SIR markers to preoperatively predict the long-term prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). METHODS: 468 consecutive ICC patients who underwent hepatectomy between 2010 and 2017 were enrolled. The PRG and a nomogram were generated and their predictive accuracy was evaluated. RESULTS: The PRG consisted of two non-tumor-specific SIR markers platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and albumin (ALB), which were both the independent predictors of overall survival (OS). Multivariate analysis showed that the PRG was significantly associated with OS (PRG = 1 hazard ratio (HR) = 3.800, p < 0.001; PRG = 2 HR = 7.585, p < 0.001). The C-index of the PRG for predicting survival was 0.685 (95% CI 0.655 to 0.716), which was statistically higher than that of the following systems American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition (C-index 0.645), Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan (LCSGJ) (C-index 0.644) and Okabayashi (C-index 0.633) (p < 0.05). Besides, the C-index of the nomogram only consisting of the tumor-specific factors (serum carcinoembryonic antigen, carbohydrate antigen 19-9, tumor number) could be improved to 0.737 (95% CI 0.062-0.768) from 0.625 (95% CI 0.585-0.665) when the PRG was incorporated (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The PRG integrating two non-tumor-specific SIR markers PLR and ALB was a novel method to preoperative predicting the prognosis of ICC.