Plutonium Disposition: Using and Explaining Complex Risk-Related Methods.

ABSTRACT

Applying risk assessment and management tools to plutonium disposition is a long-standing challenge for the U.S. government. The science is complicated, which has helped push risk assessment and management tools in new creative directions. Yet, communicating effectively about increasingly complicated risk-science issues like plutonium disposition requires careful planning and speakers who can address why specific tools are selected, the past record of applying these tools, why assumptions sometimes are applied instead of reliable data, and how uncertainty is characterized. Speakers addressing risk issues must also overcome obstacles in communication arising from expert-audience differences in knowledge and legal restrictions on disclosing information. This perspective seeks to highlight and illustrate five key risk questions, about probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and performance assessment (PA) in the context of managing plutonium defense nuclear waste objectives, experience, gaps, transparency, and difficulty of applying and communicating using each tool. While the general public needs to be involved, some issues require a level of expertise that is typically beyond local communities and therefore an expert panel should support community access.