Spatial analysis of tuberculosis and its relationship with socioeconomic indicators in a medium-sized city in Minas Gerais.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the tuberculosis spatial pattern and its relationship with socioeconomic indicators, from 2008 to 2015, in a priority city for tuberculosis control by the National Tuberculosis Control Program, Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. METHODS: Ecological study in which the units of analysis were 81 urban regions of Juiz de Fora. Secondary data from Notifiable Diseases Information System and 2010 Demographic Census were used. Georeferenced data from 1,854 notifications were used to elaborate thematic maps in order to verify the distribution pattern of average tuberculosis rates and socioeconomic indicators within the city. Global spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) and local (Local Indicator of Spatial Association) and multiple linear regression model were estimated to analyze the relationship between the average tuberculosis incidence rate and socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS: The average tuberculosis incidence rate was 48.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants/year. It was found that the urban regions corresponding to central regions of the city had lower rates with a progressive increase toward the urban regions representative of the most peripheral neighborhoods. All variables showed significant spatial autocorrelation. The regression model showed an association between the average tuberculosis incidence rate and the proportion of poor, household density, and aging index. CONCLUSION: The dynamics of tuberculosis transmission in Juiz de Fora may be explained by the maintenance of social inequality and urban space organization process.