Changing incidence and projections of thyroid cancer in mainland China, 1983-2032: evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: An increasing incidence of thyroid cancer has been seen in China during the past several decades. The aim of this study was to analyze potential age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in mainland China and to predict new cases up to 2032. METHODS: We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer, conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 35,037 thyroid cancer incidence cases reported to Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1983 to 2012 in mainland China, and predicted incidence up to 2032 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort method. RESULTS: The age-adjusted overall incidence rate of thyroid cancer increased from 1.93/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 12.18/100,000 in 2008-2012 among females and from 0.77/100,000 in 1983-1987 to 3.89/100,000 in 2008-2012 among males, with a female-to-male ratio of approximately 3.0 during the three decades. Strong birth cohort and period effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed for both sexes, and such an increasing trend is predicted to continue for at least the next 20 years. More than 3.7 million new cases are projected in the 2028-2032 period. CONCLUSION: The increasing trend of thyroid cancer in mainland China will cause a great burden in the future. In addition to the potential impact of improvement in medical diagnostics, potential exposure to risk factors have played a role in the observed rising trend. Further population-based epidemiologic studies are required to identify risk factors to aid in thyroid cancer prevention and control.