Predicting the duration of sickness absence due to knee osteoarthritis: a prognostic model developed in a population-based cohort in Sweden.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord
; 22(1): 603, 2021 Jul 02.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34215239
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Predicting the duration of sickness absence (SA) among sickness absent patients is a task many sickness certifying physicians as well as social insurance officers struggle with. Our aim was to develop a prediction model for prognosticating the duration of SA due to knee osteoarthritis.METHODS:
A population-based prospective study of SA spells was conducted using comprehensive microdata linked from five Swedish nationwide registers. All 12,098 new SA spells > 14 days due to knee osteoarthritis in 1/1 2010 through 30/6 2012 were included for individuals 18-64 years. The data was split into a development dataset (70 %, nspells =8468) and a validation data set (nspells =3690) for internal validation. Piecewise-constant hazards regression was performed to prognosticate the duration of SA (overall duration and duration > 90, >180, or > 365 days). Possible predictors were selected based on the log-likelihood loss when excluding them from the model.RESULTS:
Of all SA spells, 53 % were > 90 days and 3 % >365 days. Factors included in the final model were age, sex, geographical region, extent of sickness absence, previous sickness absence, history of specialized outpatient healthcare and/or inpatient healthcare, employment status, and educational level. The model was well calibrated. Overall, discrimination was poor (c = 0.53, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.52-0.54). For predicting SA > 90 days, discrimination as measured by AUC was 0.63 (95 % CI 0.61-0.65), for > 180 days, 0.69 (95 % CI 0.65-0.71), and for SA > 365 days, AUC was 0.75 (95 % CI 0.72-0.78).CONCLUSION:
It was possible to predict patients at risk of long-term SA (> 180 days) with acceptable precision. However, the prediction of duration of SA spells due to knee osteoarthritis has room for improvement.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Osteoartrite do Joelho
Tipo de estudo:
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article